California Ballot Returns Lag as Governor’s Race Struggles to Energize Voters

May 26, 2026

As California approaches its June 2 primary election for governor, Black voters are returning mail-in ballots at rates below their statewide registration share, mirroring a generally sluggish voter response across all demographics. Early data shows Black voters comprise approximately 4% of registered voters but only 3% of returned ballots, with their overall turnout declining from 7. 5% in 2022 to 6.

Who is affected

Black voters in California
Democratic voters statewide
Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco
Democratic candidates Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, Katie Porter, and Tony Thurmond
Older Californians (age 65+) who represent 54% of early ballot returns
Younger voters (ages 18-34) who represent about 10% of early returns
California Democratic Party officials and leadership
Black California elected officials including Sen. Lola Smallwood-Cuevas, Assemblymembers Mia Bonta, Isaac Bryan, Tina McKinnor, Corey Jackson, LaShae Sharp-Collins, Rhodesia Ransom, and Lori Wilson

What action is being taken

Voters are returning mail ballots (though at a slow pace, with 7.9% turnout as of May 22)
Political Data Intelligence is compiling and tracking early ballot return data
California Democratic Party officials are using polling to press for Democratic consolidation
Black Democratic leadership and elected officials are endorsing multiple candidates
Congressmember Maxine Waters is recommending Becerra in her sample ballot distributed to voters
Californians can vote by mail or cast ballots in person ahead of the June 2 primary
Same-day voter registration remains available through Election Day

Why it matters

This election matters because California's top-two primary system could potentially allow two Republican candidates to advance to the general election if Democratic votes remain divided among multiple candidates, effectively shutting Democrats out of the gubernatorial race in a traditionally blue state. The underrepresentation of Black voters in early ballot returns is significant given that 73% of African American likely voters identify as Democrats, meaning lower Black turnout could affect Democratic candidates' chances. The divided endorsements among Black political leadership across multiple Democratic candidates reflects both the competitive nature of the race and the potential for vote-splitting that concerns party officials. Additionally, the lower overall voter engagement compared to previous elections suggests this race has not yet generated the same enthusiasm as past statewide contests, which could impact the final composition and legitimacy of the eventual winner.

What's next

Polls will be open June 2 from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
The two candidates receiving the highest number of votes will advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation
Voters can continue to vote by mail or cast ballots in person ahead of the June 2 primary
Same-day voter registration will remain available through Election Day

Read full article from source: The San Diego Voice & Viewpoint